2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament: East Region Breakdown
- Tristan Beckmann
- Mar 14, 2023
- 6 min read
The 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is upon us! For each region, I will be breaking down the most vulnerable high seed, a Cinderella team in the region, an upset alert, and a sleeper team in the region. I will also be spotlighting a high-major and mid-major player in the region. Each article will conclude with my picks that are totally 100% guaranteed to not be accurate!
This is part two of a four-part series. You can find my South Region breakdown here. The second region I will be breaking down is the East Region, in which the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games will be contested in New York City. Without further ado, let’s get right into it!
Most Vulnerable High Seed:
#4 Tennessee Volunteers (23-10, 11-7 SEC)
Since reaching the number two spot in the Week 12 AP Poll, Rick Barnes’ Tennessee Volunteers have really struggled to get anything going for a consistent stretch. After they defeated Texas at home on January 28th, the Vols went just 5-7, winning just one game away from home in the SEC Tournament against a poor Ole Miss team. Quite simply, Tennessee is just a completely different team without sophomore Zakai Zeigler. The Long Island native went down with an ACL injury against Arkansas on February 28th, and will not return to the court this season. The Volunteers found their identity on the defensive end of the floor, so the tenacious defensive guard is sorely missed.
They don’t shoot the ball particularly well from three, connecting on a 32.9 percent clip, which is not even in the top-225 in the country. Overall, they have the second best KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation, but that ranking has dipped to 103rd in the country since the Zeigler injury. Barnes’ team is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, but a stagnant offense is typically not a recipe for success in the big dance, and Tennessee will not be able to survive with one. The past two tournaments, Rick Barnes had better overall teams, but the Volunteers still got bounced in the first weekend. Expect that trend to continue this weekend, one way or another.
High Major Player to Know:
Kansas State G Markquis Nowell
Absolutely no one expected Kansas State to be this good this season following the departure of Bruce Weber. When longtime Baylor assistant Jerome Tang was tabbed as the program’s next head coach, he had to get to work immediately. One of the few returning guys, Markquis Nowell, has made Tang’s task inconceivably easier this season. Nowell formed an incredible 1-2 punch with Florida transfer Keyontae Johnson, helping the Wildcats to 23-9 record and a three-seed in this tournament. Nowell will not overwhelm you with size, as he stands just 5’7 and weighs in at about 155 pounds, but the fifth-year senior will overwhelm you with his heart and tenacity on both ends of the floor.
The Harlem native will be a primary catalyst as he tries to get Kansas State to Madison Square Garden for the second weekend and beyond. The First Team All-Big 12 selection averaged 16.8 points and 3.5 rebounds while leading the conference in assists (7.6) and steals (2.4) per game. He shot 34.6 percent from three on nearly seven attempts per game, while shooting nearly 89 percent from the charity stripe on nearly six attempts a night. Nowell also led the Big 12 in minutes played per game en route to a selection on the All-Defensive Team. The potential for him to impact the game on both ends of the floor on a nightly basis is clearly there, and Nowell will look to lead the Wildcats to their first Final Four since 1964.
Mid-Major Player to Know:
Vermont G Dylan Penn
Vermont has some new faces on their team as they get set to play in their fourth NCAA Tournament in a six-year time frame. John Becker has done an outstanding job in Burlington as the Catamounts have dominated the America East for several years now. Dare we call it a dynasty? Becker has multiple fascinating players on his team, but nobody gives opposing teams headaches like Dylan Penn. Penn is an explosive, downhill driver who can occasionally step outside and knock down a triple, as evidenced by his 33 percent clip from deep on low volume. Penn should be preparing to play in his second-straight NCAA Tournament, but the NCAA lawmakers in Indianapolis would not allow Bellarmine (his original team) to play in the big dance after winning the ASUN Conference Tournament.
Penn made it a mission to play in the tournament before his collegiate career concluded, and he accomplished his goal in joining Vermont. Alongside Finn Sullivan and Aaron Deloney, Penn has helped the Catamounts reign victorious in the America East for the second-straight season. The ambidextrous fifth-year senior has experience and the drive to keep his team feeling like they’ve got a chance. Penn, averaging 13.5 points and 2.2 assists, will have to keep Shaka Smart’s Marquette team on their toes to give the Catamounts a chance. For what’s it worth, Postseason Penn might be a real thing, as he has won the ASUN Tournament MVP and America East Tournament MVP in consecutive seasons.
Cinderella in the Region:
#9 Florida Atlantic Owls (31-3, 18-2 Conference USA)
After just teetering above the .500 mark for his first four seasons, Dusty May has led the Florida Atlantic Owls back into the NCAA Tournament for the second time in program history. A former Florida assistant and student manager under Bob Knight at Indiana, May punctuated the Owls’ strong regular season with a dominant week at the Conference USA Tournament. After January, there was no doubt that FAU was going to be in the big dance, as they clearly didn’t look the part of a fringe bubble team. The Owls are an incredibly balanced team, as they go nine-deep and can win games in a variety of ways.
They rank in the top-40 in both KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, while taking good care of the basketball, as evidenced by their 69th best turnover-rate (nice) in the country. Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin are two of the standouts for this team, as they both average over 13 points, five rebounds, and over one steal per game. Martin is shooting 36.9 percent from beyond the arc while Davis is shooting 39.3 percent from deep. They are a primary reason for FAU’s strong 37.2 percent team three-point percentage, which is top-30 in the nation. If you needed any more reasons to ride with the Owls in March, they’re an experienced group, as they rank 26th in the country in terms of minutes continuity.
Upset Alert:
Jordan Brown is the star of the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, and a big game from him may be the key to an upset over the fourth seeded Tennessee Volunteers. Tennessee has been the better defensive team over the course of the season, but as we mentioned earlier, they are not the same without Zakai Zeigler. Louisiana is slightly better than Tennessee on the offensive end of the floor, but we have to take this with a grain of salt given the competition. The Ragin’ Cajuns excel at shooting the three, grabbing offensive rebounds, and getting to the charity stripe (although they aren’t uber-efficient from it). Tennessee has struggled as of late, while Bob Marlin’s team has flourished. If the Volunteers struggle to replicate their defensive intensity from the start of the season and shots aren’t falling, don’t be surprised if Brown powers Louisiana to a first round victory.
Sleeper in the Region:
#6 Kentucky Wildcats (21-11, 12-6 SEC)
There might not be a team with more to prove in this year’s NCAA Tournament than the Kentucky Wildcats. Fresh off of last year’s surprising Round of 64 exit to St. Peter’s and amidst an inconsistent season, John Calipari has had to fight for his job status with Big Blue Nation. Many in the passionate fanbase want the program to move on, considering the struggles in March in the past couple of seasons. Following a home loss to an underwhelming South Carolina team on January 10th, Kentucky faced an uphill climb to get into the tournament picture. Calipari’s group responded with a 11-5 stretch that included a sweep of Tennessee, home wins over Auburn and Texas A&M, and a road win at Arkansas.
Kentucky is paced by last year’s National Player of the Year in Oscar Tshiebwe, averaging 16.5 points and 13.1 rebounds. Tshiebwe is complimented nicely by a future NBA All-Defender in Cason Wallace, who averages two steals per game and knocks down the three-pointer at a 34.7 percent rate. Antonio Reeves is the sniper for Kentucky, hitting threes at a 40.7 percent clip, while Jacob Toppin and Chris Livingston are strong wings on both ends of the floor. The Wildcats are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, grabbing their own misses at a whopping 38.7 percent rate. We know they are talented enough to make a deep run in March, but the consistency of this group is the biggest question mark. It will be fun to see how it plays out over the next couple weeks.
My Picks:
Thank you for reading. I hope you enjoyed it. Feel free to share thoughts and opinions in the comment section!
All statistics used in this article are courtesy of KenPom, College Basketball Reference, and Wikipedia.
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