2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament: West Region Breakdown
- Tristan Beckmann
- Mar 15, 2023
- 6 min read
Updated: Mar 16, 2023
The 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is upon us! For each region, I will be breaking down the most vulnerable high seed, a Cinderella team in the region, an upset alert, and a sleeper team in the region. I will also be spotlighting a high-major and mid-major player in the region. Each article will conclude with my picks that are totally 100% guaranteed to not be accurate! This article marks the final part of this four-part series, as I will be breaking down the West Region, in which the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games will be contested in Las Vegas, Nevada. At the end of the breakdown, I will conclude with my Final Four and National Championship prediction. Without further ado, let’s get right into it!
Most Vulnerable High Seed:
#3 Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-5, 14-2 WCC)
I was a fan of the Gonzaga program from afar for years, but I can’t get on the Bulldogs hype train this season. Maybe it’s because they’ve consistently let me down the past two seasons by losing embarrassingly in the tournament. Gonzaga isn’t as vulnerable as they are limited in terms of their ceiling. This team won’t win the national championship, but there are people who firmly believe they will. After losing Chet Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard to the NBA, Mark Few has the Bulldogs once again at the top of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, but they are just 76th in defense. Their success has a lot to do with the play of Drew Timme and Julian Strawther, both of whom have to produce if they want to reach the Final Four and beyond. Timme and Strawther combine to average over 36 points per game while Anton Watson and Rasir Bolton are the only other players to average double-figures. If one of Timme and Strawther have a bad game, Gonzaga might find itself in trouble, especially against top-tier teams. I think that it’s fair to expect Gonzaga to continue their streak of consecutive Sweet 16 appearances, but they could be bounced early by a team like TCU if they’re able to hound Strawther on the perimeter. The Horned Frogs are a tough and physical defensive team who’ve been tested in the Big 12 all year, and Gonzaga’s past losses in March have this same recipe as well.
High Major Player to Know:
UCLA F Jaime Jaquez Jr.
UCLA is definitely a team that will be fun to watch during their stay in the NCAA Tournament, mostly because of how sensational this guy is. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is one of the best players in the country, and I truly mean that. He’s only 6’6 and 220 pounds, but he plays like he’s 6' 11 and 260. He brings tenacity and physicality to both ends of the floor, so he’s a typical Mick Cronin guy. Cronin hopes he can ride Jaquez’s coattails back to the Final Four, aiming to repeat the special run the Bruins had in 2021. With the loss of Jaylen Clark (the best defender in the country), Jaquez’s value to the Bruins gets even more important. He averaged 17.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game this year en route to winning the Pac-12 Player of the Year award and being selected to the AP All-American 2nd-Team. The Camarillo, California native is an incredible player in the post and he finishes in the paint at an elite-rate. His Plan A isn’t to shoot the three-pointer, but he’s proven he can hit one if necessary. He is the engine to the Bruins blueprint for a deep March run.
Mid-Major Player to Know:
UNC Asheville F Drew Pember
A name that might be familiar with some SEC fans, Drew Pember is an absolutely incredible player. The Knoxville, Tennessee native spent the first two seasons of his collegiate career as a role player under Rick Barnes at the University of Tennessee. Now, he is a senior forward and leader for the UNC Asheville Bulldogs under head coach Mike Morell. This season, Pember is averaging 21.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game, while leading the entire country in free throws made and attempted. The 6’10 big man can also stretch the floor for the Bulldogs, connecting on three-pointers at a 37.3 percent clip. He is the first player in Big South conference history to be named Preseason Player of the Year, Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Tournament MVP in the same season. Pember has already recorded three 40-plus point outings this season, and he might have to do that and more for the Bulldogs to have a puncher’s chance at upsetting UCLA. For what it’s worth, UCLA isn’t super-deep at the big man position and all of their bigs struggle with foul trouble.
Cinderella in the Region:
#8 Arkansas Razorbacks (20-13, 8-10 SEC)
Arkansas was extremely hot over the first month or two of the regular season, and fell flat off the face of the earth once January started. For Eric Musselman’s team, it’s been a season filled with injuries, inconsistency, but the Razorbacks have still shown flashes of what we thought they were going to be in the preseason. Ricky Council IV is a tremendous player and Musselman’s group is filled with hard-nosed guys. The big question for Arkansas is when their lack of three-point shooting will rear its ugly head in the tournament. To make a Cinderella run, the Hogs will have to beat their opponents with physical defense while dominating the interior. They’ll have to continue to get to the free-throw line, as they have a 38.7 free-throw rate. The #1 overall recruit in the class of 2022, Nick Smith Jr., is the X-factor for Musselman. He hasn’t been healthy for most of the season, but he’s at his healthiest right now, and it’s time for him to display the talent he was so highly prized for. Arkansas has been tested against great competition in a strong SEC and they’ve lost a lot of close games, so maybe their luck will change for the better in the tournament.
Upset Alert:
I’m not seeing this floated as a popular upset pick, or maybe I’m just on the wrong networks. Last week, I wrote about Randy Bennett’s St. Mary’s team and how they fit the 20-year criteria to be a national champion this season, but they couldn’t have gotten a worse Round of 64 matchup if they tried. I’ve got a myriad of reasons as to why VCU should be considered in this game. Firstly, the Gaels were relatively unimpressive in the WCC Championship game against Gonzaga, while the Rams steamrolled their way through the A10 Tournament. Secondly, VCU employs a press and Randy Bennett’s team really struggled against the press this year. They nearly blew a 26-point lead against BYU’s press in the WCC Semifinals. Lastly, VCU gets to the free-throw line at the ninth best rate in the country, while St. Mary’s isn’t deep enough to sustain foul trouble. Oh, one more thing, the Gael’s have to travel all the way across the country to Albany while VCU has a short flight.
Sleeper in the Region:
#7 Northwestern Wildcats (21-11, 12-8 Big Ten)
Northwestern fans aren’t accustomed to their basketball team playing in the NCAA Tournament, as this is just the second appearance for the program ever. Evanston will be riding on the success of their Wildcats, as Chris Collins looks to put some more success on his already successful resume. Collins, a former Duke assistant and the son of NBA legend Doug Collins, has done a fantastic job at Northwestern in an almost impossible spot. His team is very interesting, as they are elite on the defensive end of the floor but not so pretty offensively. They are 13th in the country in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, led by Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Chase Audige. The redshirt senior averaged 2.4 steals per game in addition to scoring 13.8 points a night. In addition to Audige, Northwestern is led by All-Big Ten selection Boo Buie, who averages 17.1 points and 4.5 assists per game. The Wildcats play at a slow-pace on the offensive end of the floor, limit their turnovers, and are very good at the free-throw line. My advice to you this March: Do not sleep on Northwestern!
My Picks:
My Final Four and National Championship Picks:
Thank you for reading. I hope you enjoyed it. Feel free to share thoughts and opinions in the comment section!
All statistics used in this article are courtesy of KenPom, College Basketball Reference, and Wikipedia.
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