2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament: South Region Breakdown
- Tristan Beckmann
- Mar 14, 2023
- 6 min read
Updated: Mar 16, 2023
The 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is upon us! For each region, I will be breaking down the most vulnerable high seed, a Cinderella team in the region, an upset alert, and a sleeper team in the region. I will also be spotlighting a high-major and mid-major player in the region. Each article will conclude with my picks that are totally 100% guaranteed to not be accurate! It’s March, so we have to expect the unexpected! The first region I will be breaking down is the South Region, in which the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games will be contested in Louisville, Kentucky. Without further ado, let’s get right into it!
Most Vulnerable High Seed:
#3 Baylor Bears (22-10, 11-7 Big 12)
Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears won the national championship in 2021 on the backs of a strong defense and a veteran group of players. Drew has the veteran group of players necessary to compete for a title this season, but the Bears are not nearly as talented on the defensive end as they were two seasons ago. They are an elite offensive team as they rank in the top-5 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, but they rank outside the top-100 in defensive efficiency. These metrics do not present a favorable outlook for Baylor’s chances of advancing deep into the NCAA Tournament based on the past. There’s no question that the Bears are loaded with talent, but the consistency is something to question. Baylor has an NBA lottery pick in Keyontae George, alongside two elite guards in Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer. They have a talented rim protector in Jonathan Tchamwa Tchathoua, but he’s still not all the way back from that rough injury he suffered last year. Heading into the tournament, Baylor has lost four of six and is fresh off a loss to Iowa State in their only game at the Big 12 Tournament, so they’re not exactly firing on all cylinders.
High Major Player to Know:
Alabama F Brandon Miller
Amidst all the controversy off the court, nobody can deny that Brandon Miller is one of the most talented players in the entire country. A top-5 NBA Draft talent if we spoke strictly of on-the-court activities, Miller has been a massive reason for Nate Oats and the Alabama Crimson Tide’s ascension to the number one overall seed this season. Miller, the SEC Player of the Year and surefire first-team All-American, led the conference in scoring at 19.6 points per game. He produced these gaudy point totals on a rather efficient 45.1 percent clip, including a 40.1% success rate from beyond the arc on over 7.5 attempts per game. An excellent rebounder and lanky defender, Miller is versatile and can guard multiple positions while not sacrificing anything for his team. As long as the outside noise doesn’t reach its breaking point in the next couple of weeks, Miller will be tasked with trying to help Alabama win its first national championship in program history.
Mid-Major Player to Know:
Utah State G Steven Ashworth
If the Utah State Aggies want to knock off a strong SEC foe in the Missouri Tigers and the Pac-12 champion Arizona Wildcats in one weekend, Steven Ashworth will have to bring his A-game. The Alpine, Utah native has developed from a quality role-player into the absolute best player for head coach Ryan Odom’s team. After starting for the Aggies for much of the second half of 2022, Ashworth perfected his craft and became an elite player on both ends of the floor. The shifty 6 '1 guard leads Utah State in scoring (16.3 PPG), assists (4.5 APG), and steals (1.2 SPG), while connecting on 44.3 percent of his three-point shot attempts. That elite three-point percentage isn’t a product of low volume either, as Ashworth attempts over seven long balls per game. The All-Mountain West First Team selection will be crucial to the chances that the Aggies might have of making it to the second weekend.
Cinderella in the Region:
#12 Charleston Cougars (31-3, 16-2 CAA)
A consistently strong mid-major force in the Colonial Athletic Association, Charleston has resurged in 2023 in the second season under head coach Pat Kelsey. The former Winthrop head man has continued his winning ways at the helm of the Cougars, leading them to a 31-3 record and a CAA Tournament title. 12th-seeded Charleston will be playing against a fellow mid-major powerhouse in fifth-seeded San Diego State in the Round of 64. The Cougars are very exciting to watch, as they play at an extremely fast tempo while limiting their turnovers in doing so. They are heavily reliant on and find success shooting threes, similar to many past Cinderella stories, as they rank second in the country in three point attempts per game, while shooting 33.3 percent from downtown. Kelsey coaches a very deep team, as the Cougars rank 21st in the country in bench minutes. They have five double-digit scorers including seniors Dalton Bolon, Pat Robinson, and Ryan Larson. They also have a 35.1 percent offensive-rebounding rate, which ranks in the top-20 in the country. Oh, and did I mention they’re riding a 10-game winning streak going into the big dance?
Upset Alert:
The Furman Paladins are one of the very best mid-majors in the entire tournament, and they drew a very tough opponent in the Virginia Cavaliers of the ACC. Last week, Furman won the Southern Conference Tournament by defeating Chattanooga, 88-79. They’ve played well in many of the tougher games they’ve had, but none of those opponents will match up to quite the level that Virginia does. Firstly, Virginia will be missing gritty veteran forward Ben Vander Plas, who broke his hand prior to the ACC Tournament. While Virginia played well in Greensboro despite his absence, his loss could catch up to them in this game. There are plenty of reasons to pick Furman here, including their offensive efficiency, nationally-leading 59.1% two-point field goal percentage, and their ability to limit turnovers (15.8% turnover rate). Besides those statistics, the Paladins are one of the most experienced teams in the country, as they are led by two seniors in Jalen Slawson and Mike Bothwell. Virginia will play this game at their pace, but it bears to keep in mind that the Cavaliers are just 2-4 against top-36 KenPom offenses this season. Another concern is the ability of Virginia to put games away at the charity stripe, as they shoot just 70.1 percent from the line, ranking 250th in the country. Tony Bennett’s group will have to be locked and loaded for a 40-minute battle with Bob Richey’s Paladins on Thursday afternoon.
Sleeper in the Region:
#6 Creighton Blue Jays (21-12, 14-6 Big East)
Creighton without Ryan Kalkbrenner is probably a Round of 64 team at its peak. Creighton with a healthy Kalkbrenner can compete for a national championship and they are not to be slept on in this region. With the Blue Jays healthy and geared up for March, many in the industry firmly believe that Greg McDermott’s team has the talent and experience necessary to make a deep run in March. Not many teams have endured adversity like this Creighton team has, as the Blue Jays went through a six-game skid in December, before rattling off eight straight wins in January and February. It’s been a tumultuous ride for Creighton fans, but those experiences could prove valuable to this group in the big dance. Ryan Nembhard is a tremendous point guard who is the cog to the machine that is the Creighton offense, pairing up with the elite rim protector and paint beast in Kalkbrenner to form an incredible duo. McDermott doesn’t just rely on his two stars producing big games, however, as he routinely gets production from three-point marksman Trey Alexander, jack of all trades Baylor Scheierman, and the inconsistent but talented Arthur Kaluma.
My Picks:
Thank you for reading. I hope you enjoyed. Feel free to share thoughts and opinions in the comment section!
All statistics used in this article are courtesy of KenPom, College Basketball Reference, and Wikipedia.
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