The Most Interesting Team in the Country
- Tristan Beckmann
- Feb 25, 2022
- 7 min read
In Indiana, basketball is a staple of the culture. From the massive state high school tournaments to the 10 (soon to be 11) NCAA Division I athletic programs in the state, basketball is ingrained in the everyday life of Indiana. In West Lafayette, Indiana, these statements remain consistent amidst a community’s growing hunger for a national championship. This community? None other than the Purdue Boilermakers men’s basketball program. Purdue isn’t a college basketball blue-blood like UCLA, Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, or rival Indiana, but they’ve grown accustomed to being successful. They’re in the tier below the blue-blood programs, with a rich history of success but a lack of hardware to show for it. As the trophy case continues to accumulate dust, the fanbase sees a massive opportunity with the Purdue men’s team in 2022.
Purdue has been ranked inside the top-7 in the AP Top 25 poll for the entirety of the season to date. They earned their first-ever stint with the number one overall ranking in December. They have a projected top five NBA Draft pick in guard Jaden Ivey, alongside a first team All-Big Ten big man in Trevion Williams and the 7-foot-4 monster in Zach Edey. With role players like Sasha Stefanovic, Mason Gillis, Eric Hunter Jr., and Isaiah Thompson finding their groove and playing within the system, Purdue has incredible depth. They’ve been dominant at many points throughout the campaign, sitting at 24-4 with a 13-4 record in the difficult Big Ten. But yet, there are still many factors leading to a doubt surrounding the Boilermakers.
The first factor might be hard to read for the diehard fans who have seen Purdue up close. Matt Painter knows far too much about heartbreak in the NCAA Tournament, having experienced early exits and stinging losses throughout his tenure as Purdue’s head coach. In 2011, Painter’s third-seeded Boilermakers got embarrassed by 11th-seeded VCU in the Round of 32. That VCU team went on to make the Final Four. In 2012, Painter saw his underdog, 10th-seeded Purdue squad lose by 3 to the eventual national runner-up in second-seeded Kansas.
When Purdue returned to the big dance in 2015, Painter’s 9th-seeded Boilers lost by one in overtime to Cincinnati in the Round of 64. The next year, fifth-seeded Purdue lost by two in overtime to an underdog, 12th-seeded Little Rock team in the first round. In 2019, they were victims of the Mamadi Diakite miracle that kept them from making the program’s first Final Four since 1980. In last season’s tournament, the fourth-seeded Boilermakers were upset by 13th seeded North Texas in the opening round, losing by nine in overtime. Lifelong Purdue fans are understandably going to be shy about having long-term title hopes due to the recent history of the program. Not to mention the difficulty that college basketball experts and analysts might have in picking the Boilermakers to advance throughout the NCAA Tournament.
The other factor that makes Purdue an interesting case study is the simple fact that this is one of the most unique teams in college basketball. Forget about the fact that they run their offense through a 7-foot-4, 295 pound center who makes Kofi Cockburn look small. That makes them unique in its own right, but advanced analytics paint a picture that truly shows how intriguing this Boilermaker team is. As we speak on February 25th, the Purdue Boilermakers are the only team in the country to rank inside the top five in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric while ranking outside the top 100 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Specifically, Purdue is the nation’s top ranked offense while lagging behind as the 118th best defensive unit.
Purdue has had its fair share of struggles on the defensive end of the floor, with its worst defensive efficiency performances coming against Michigan, Nicholls State, Villanova, and Ohio State. On the flip side, they’ve shown moments of great team defense against teams like Butler, Northwestern, and Iowa. In fact, they held the Hawkeyes to their third-worst offensive efficiency output of the season in their 77-70 win on December 3rd. The inconsistency on the defensive end has not completely torched the Boilermakers yet, but the concern is that the problem rears its ugly head in March. In Big Ten play, Purdue’s defense sits at 11th out of 14 teams, ahead of Maryland, Minnesota, and Nebraska. Yet again, the offense is the best in the league.
The intriguing question surrounding Purdue and their title chances in March is simple. What have teams with turbo-efficient offenses and merely average defenses done in the NCAA Tournament in the past? Since KenPom began uploading his adjusted efficiency statistics in the 2001-02 season, there have been 32 teams to qualify for the NCAA Tournament to rank in the top ten of KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency, but not in the top 100 of KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency. Since Purdue is likely to get a seed of at least four, we can cut down this data to find seven comparably seeded teams who still fit the bill. Keep in mind, we are taking the efficiency numbers from before the NCAA Tournament for these teams. The table below shows the similar teams as well as Purdue in these respective categories.
While the results may scare some people, I will say that none of these teams had the ultra-efficient offense and talent that Purdue currently possesses. There’s a reason that Purdue is the most efficient offensive team in the nation. Well, actually there’s a ton of reasons. They rank third in the country in effective field goal percentage at a 58.3 percent clip, behind South Dakota State and Gonzaga. They rank second in the country in three-point percentage at a 40.3 percent rate, once again behind South Dakota State. With two dominant bigs in Edey and Williams, the Boilers also rank seventh in the country in two-point field goal percentage, shooting 56.9 percent from two. Edey and Williams also contribute to Purdue being an elite offensive-rebounding team, as the Boilers rank 14th in the country in offensive-rebound percentage at 35.1%. Individually, both of the big men rank inside the top-20 in the country in this metric.
Those numbers combined with being top-70 at avoiding turnovers and above-average at getting to the free throw line have made Purdue a well-oiled offensive machine. Purdue assists on 60.5 percent of their made shots, which is 17th in the nation. They can play efficient, team basketball but also know when to let Ivey, Edey, or Williams get the ball and go to work. Ivey ranks in the 79th percentile in individual offensive efficiency, averaging 0.991 points per possession. Ivey has struggled from beyond the arc of late (making four of his last 29), but he’s hovering around 37 percent on the season.
The veteran Williams ranks in the 75th percentile of offensive efficiency, averaging 0.971 points per possession. Starting four Gillis ranks in the 99th percentile, averaging 1.239 PPP. He’s shooting 47.1 percent from three. Edey, Stefanovic, and Thompson also all rank in the 92nd percentile or better. Stefanovic is shooting 40.6 percent from three on high volume while Thompson has shot 43.2 percent from deep on a lower volume. Reading these numbers gives you a hint as to why the Boilers are so highly touted on offense. There’s no legitimate weakness to exploit on the offensive end of the floor for Purdue.
Not everything qualifies as a strength for Purdue, as it’s time to dive into their defensive numbers. The first number that pops out to the average person is their opponent’s turnover percentage. Purdue is one of the 15 worst teams in the country in terms of opponent turnover percentage. Essentially, Purdue forces a turnover on 14.8 percent of their opponent’s possessions. That number isn’t typically up to par with the gold standard defense that national championship teams play.
Despite the presence of a gargantuan big in Edey and a solid center in Williams, Purdue doesn’t keep its opponents to a low two-point field goal percentage. They hover around below average, holding opponents to a 48.8 clip from inside the three-point line, which ranks 141st in the nation. It’s not much better from outside the three-point line, as Purdue gives up 8.4 three pointers per game to their opponent, which ranks 311th in the country. The opponents make these shots at a 33.9 percent clip, which sits as the 187th best such mark in the nation.
Using Synergy Sports technology of possession by possession tracking, it becomes clear that Purdue finds its defensive struggles in a few aspects. A lot of teams tend to struggle with defending in transition, but Purdue’s troubles are expedited in this aspect of the game. The Boilermakers rank in the fourth percentile in transition defense, as opponents are scoring about 1.13 points per possession in transition. In the clip below from their last game against Rutgers, Jaden Ivey misses a three-point attempt and Caleb McConnell grabs the rebound. Instead of slowing down to allow the Boilermakers to get set in the half-court, McConnell pushes the pace and hits it ahead to Paul Mulcahy, who in turn, delivers a pass to a wide-open, trailing Mawot Mag underneath the basket for an easy bucket. On this play, it appears Isaiah Thompson and Eric Hunter Jr. just don’t communicate who is leveling the ball and who is taking away the leaking man behind.
They’ve found it difficult to defend the pick and roll, specifically with the ball handler, as they rank 288th in the country in points per possession on P&R ball handler possessions. They also struggle to contain actions designed to find a spot-up shooter, as they rank in the 41st percentile in this category, surrendering 0.92 points per spot-up possession. Given their aforementioned struggles defending the three, this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone reading.
These weaknesses are best illustrated with a clip from their earlier game against Villanova. In the clip below, Villanova’s Collin Gillespie calls for a high pick & roll screen from Jermaine Samuels. Gillespie smoothly flows to the left side of the floor through the action as Samuels makes a cut to the basket. Within this action, Purdue’s best defensive guard, Eric Hunter Jr., decides to switch with Trevion Williams and follow Samuels to the basket while Williams steps out to guard Gillespie. While Hunter follows Samuels, Purdue guard Brandon Newman sticks in the paint to see through the cut, forgetting about his assignment, Justin Moore, who pops out to the top of the key and drains a three off a Gillespie pass.
The verdict of this study is that I don’t expect Purdue to get bounced in the first weekend, albeit dependent on matchups. They have one of the best offenses that I’ve seen in recent years. The Boilers are a truly elite offensive squad with incredible versatility. They control the glass, shoot the lights out, and can get to the free-throw line at ease. The defense isn’t great, but if they continue to work on communicating on that end of the floor, they have a much higher ceiling. With Painter’s coaching and the team’s overall experience, I think Purdue can be trusted a bit more this March.
All stats and video clips are courtesy of KenPom, Sports Reference, and Synergy Sports.
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