Using 20 Years of NCAA Tournament Data to Predict National Championship Contenders

Predicting the NCAA Tournament has never been easy. After all, it’s not an exact science. 67 games being played across the country within a 68-team field in the span of 21 days. The madness within the NCAA Tournament lends itself to the unpredictable nature of the big dance. Year after year, you brag about how your bracket is perfect to your office buddies only to watch a top three seed forget how to play basketball for 25 minutes and lose to a heavy underdog in the Round of 64. I mean seriously, who really thought St. Peter’s was going to the Elite Eight last year? 

In March, we have to stay one step ahead and expect the unexpected. After all, that’s what makes the game of college basketball so beautiful. For 40 minutes at a time in March, two teams step into the hardwood and fight off elimination, with the survivor moving ever closer to hoisting the national championship. March Madness always lives up to its namesake, combining classic game-winning shots with historic Cinderella runs by mid-major programs. 

No model is perfect, but what if I told you that I created a statistical model that could help us identify contenders to cut down the nets in Houston in April. This model combines a select group of statistics, some advanced and some basic, to create a checklist for a college basketball team to be considered a legitimate national championship contender. While it’s not perfect, it can help us narrow down teams to a list of contenders and pretenders, and nobody complains about extra help for their bracket pool in March!

THE STUDY & FORMULA

I’ve compiled data from the past 20 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments. I’ve taken data from the Sweet 16 teams, Elite Eight teams, Final Four teams, National Championship runner-up teams, and the National Championship teams. For this article, I’m going to look at the pre-tournament data for the past 20 national champions.

The reason that I have decided to use pre-tournament data is quite simple. I think it helps us get a better picture when we try to predict what will happen. It accounts for more accurate possibilities without the influence of a hot tournament run that inflates a team’s numbers. It’s not a massive shift, but it’s enough to cause a statistical dilemma. Now, let’s take a look at the statistics I’ve decided to include within this formula. Keep in mind, none of the past 20 national champions have missed any of these criteria!

So, here’s the criteria:

* 48.14% or better effective field goal percentage

* 33.06% or better three-point percentage

* 62.3% or better free-throw percentage

* 27.03% or better free-throw rate

* 28.3% or better offensive-rebound percentage

* 18.94% or lower turnover percentage

* 57th or better in KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

* 44th or better in KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

* 25th or better in KenPom Adjusted Overall Efficiency

* Top 21 in either KenPom Adjusted Offense or Defense

* Seeded on the 7-line or better

Now let’s take a look at the teams from this season and see who fits the bill!

Current 2023 Model Predictions

There are currently five teams in the country that meet the criteria described above. These teams exemplify balance on the offensive end while displaying adequate championship-caliber defense. Here are some words on each of these programs!

A note: San Diego State fits every criteria besides their seed, as it could range anywhere from 8 to 6. For this article’s purposes, I left them out, but they could fit the bill by Selection Sunday. 

Texas Longhorns (23-8, 12-6 Big 12)

On the night of December 12th, Texas barely held off Rice at home for an 87-81 overtime victory. At this point, it might’ve been normal to wonder what the future looked like for this Longhorns team, considering their head coach, Chris Beard, had been arrested that morning. If you counted out this group, you might want to think again, as interim head coach Rodney Terry has the Horns playing fantastic basketball as they head into the Big 12 Tournament. There will undoubtedly be questions about whether Terry can coach a team to the national championship, but nobody will be doubting whether he has the talent at his disposal. Led by collegiate veteran and All-Big 12 First Team honoree Marcus Carr and Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year Sir’Jabari Rice, this Texas bunch has a tremendous chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2008. 

Rice, averaging nearly 13 points per game and shooting 38.2% from beyond the arc, has been everything Texas hoped for when he transferred there from New Mexico State. Carr, a multiple-time transfer, is hoping to finish his collegiate career with some hardware, as he leads the Longhorns in scoring (16.2 PPG), assists (4.2 APG), and steals (1.6 SPG). Alongside gritty veteran Timmy Allen and Iowa State transfer guard Tyrese Hunter, Texas has reasons to feel great about their chances for a deep NCAA Tournament run. In a Big 12 conference that saw a lot of teams beating up on each other, Texas remained consistent throughout their journey. Playing the eighth hardest schedule in America, the Longhorns are very balanced and show no apparent weakness, as they rank top-20 in the nation in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are very adept at forcing their opponents into turnovers, as they force a miscue on 22.7% of their opponent’s offensive possessions, a number which ranks 21st in the country. 

Kansas Jayhawks (25-6, 13-5 Big 12)

Looking to become the first repeat champions in the sport since Florida in 2007, Bill Self’s Kansas Jayhawks look the part of a group who can survive deep into March. Let’s not forget that last year’s model correctly had Kansas in the group of teams who fit the bill of a national championship team. With two starters back from that championship team in Dajuan Harris and Jalen Wilson, this group certainly knows what it takes to win in March Madness. Wilson was recently named the unanimous Big 12 Player of the Year, as he led the Jayhawks squad in scoring (19.7 PPG) and rebounding (8.4 RPG). Harris doesn’t provide the scoring punch like Wilson, but he provides the same amount of value in other areas as the team’s hard-nosed, defensive-minded point guard. The Columbia, Missouri native is averaging 6.3 assists per game (top-10 in the country) as well as exactly two steals per game, contributing to his selection as the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. 

Future NBA Draft pick and All-Big 12 second team selection Gradey Dick provides the youthful punch for this group, averaging over 14 points per game while shooting nearly 41 percent from beyond the arc on 6 attempts per game. In the top-tier Big 12 conference, Kansas has had a very strong season to this point, playing their way to a regular season title amidst the hardest schedule in the nation. They’re very balanced and can beat you in a variety of ways. They have the ninth-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country and rank top-25 in adjusted offensive efficiency. They rank top-20 in steal percentage and top-15 in percentage of field goals coming off an assist. They are an above-average three-point shooting squad, but they don’t have to rely on the long ball to be successful. A repeat champion has proven to be the most difficult task in the sport of college basketball, but if there was a team who could pull off that feat, it might just be this year’s Kansas team. 

Houston Cougars (29-2, 17-1 American)

I can already sense the casual college basketball fan shying away from picking Houston to cut down the nets in April, given the traditional excuses of “they didn’t play anybody” and “they play in a weak conference”. This Houston team is the real deal, and Kelvin Sampson showed that his teams can win in March last season, as the Cougars narrowly lost to Villanova in the Elite Eight. The veteran coach has his team playing incredible basketball this season, as they’ve only dropped two games, one of which was against a top-five Alabama team. They also have wins over St. Mary’s, Virginia, Memphis (twice), and Oregon. As they lace up their shoes for the AAC Tournament, they are currently riding an 11-game winning streak. The Cougars are top five in both KenPom Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, while holding the number one spot overall. They rank in the bottom-20 in the country in tempo, which is typical of a Sampson-coached team, as they typically slow the game down and grind their way to victory. They have a penchant for protecting the rim, blocking 16.8% of their opponents’ shots, but they also defend the three-point line, holding opponents to a 28-percent clip from beyond the arc. They also are one of the top four teams in the country at offensive rebounding, keeping possessions alive with a strong 37.8% offensive rebound rate. 

Ultimately, the Cougars can be successful this month because they are one of the deepest teams in the country. Sampson utilizes a rotation of around seven players, but can downsize when need be. Houston is led by strong veteran guard Marcus Sasser, who averages over 17 points per game and nearly two steals a night, while shooting 38.2% from three-point range on over 7 attempts. Sasser has a strong complimentary cast including sensational freshman Jarace Walker, a 2022 top-10 recruit and a projected lottery selection. Walker is a terrific interior defender, blocking a shot per game, while also displaying a toughness on the offensive end that would be difficult to quantify. He can also stretch the floor, as he attempts nearly 3 three-pointers per game and connects at a 35.8% clip. Houston might go as far as Jamal Shead takes them, however, as the junior guard was a pivotal piece for last year’s bunch and is even more pivotal now. Following his game-winning buzzer-beater to beat Memphis on Sunday, Shead is close to averaging double figures, while dishing out 5.4 assists and racking up 1.8 steals per game. His tournament experience will prove to be massive for the ceiling of this Cougars team. 

Connecticut Huskies (24-7, 13-7 Big East)

The Connecticut Huskies have gone on two spectacular and unexpected championship runs since 2011, but I’d be posturing if I said I don’t have high expectations for this year’s team heading into the NCAA Tournament. After their disappointing exit in last year’s big dance, one would think that the Huskies have a lot to prove (and they do), but they’re also simply really good at basketball. Dan Hurley is looking to bringing the fifth national championship to Storrs in program history. In their appearance at the Phil Knight Invitational (an environment and field of NCAA Tournament quality), they rattled off three wins in three days, defeating Alabama, Iowa State, and Oregon. They also have quality wins over Creighton and Marquette. The Huskies rank top-15 in both KenPom Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, while ranking fourth overall. They are the best team in the nation at grabbing offensive rebounds, extending possessions at a 39% rate. They have a penchant for defending the three-point line, as opponents typically stray away from shooting threes against them, partially because the Huskies hold them to a 29.7 percent clip from three. 

UConn is one of the better teams in the country at sharing the sugar, as they assist on 62.5 percent of their field goals made, ranking eighth in the nation. They’ll be entering Madison Square Garden for the Big East Tournament at the right time, as they’ve rattled off five consecutive wins. They are led by two All-Big East 1st Team selections in Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins. Sanogo plays the four for the Huskies, dominating inside and occasionally stretching the floor to make UConn’s offense even more dangerous. The junior forward averages 17.2 points and 7.2 rebounds while shooting nearly 60 percent from the field. His game is complimented by sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins, who won the Big East scoring title. Hawkins averaged 16.1 points per game and has proven to be one of the top marksmen in the country, knocking down threes at a 38.4 percent clip on very high volume. Tristen Newton assumes the third wheel role for this Huskies team, reigning in the group as the defacto point guard. The East Carolina transfer averages just over ten points per game, while averaging over four rebounds and assists on a nightly basis. 

St. Mary’s Gaels (26-6, 14-2 WCC)

One of the most underappreciated programs in the sport, St. Mary’s has a chance to go on the deepest tournament run in program history when they step on the court next week. Randy Bennett has done a fantastic job of sticking to what he believes works for his program, and its continued to pay dividends year after year. While many have gotten tired of the Gonzaga shtick, St. Mary’s deserves more respect this year than their WCC rival. If people let the fact that the Gaels play in the West Coast Conference sway them away from picking them to make a deep tournament run, they might regret it. The Gaels aren’t a poor offensive team as they rank top-35 in KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, but their offense is not their “calling card”. St. Mary’s makes their bread and butter on the defensive end, ranking seventh in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. As an overall team, KenPom ranks them as the seventh-best team in the nation. Similar to Houston, the Gaels love to slow the game down and play at a methodical pace. They are the fifth slowest paced program in the country, often wearing down their opponent over 40 minutes. 

St. Mary’s does an excellent job of protecting the rim, holding opponents to a 45.2% two-point field goal percentage, which ranks as the 14th-best such mark in America. They are top-60 in turnover rate, top-35 in three-point percentage, and top-40 in offensive-rebounding percentage. They do a fantastic job of keeping their opponents off of the offensive glass, as opponents only get offensive boards at a 21.8 percent clip, which is the second-best rate in the country. Bennett’s group is deep, as he has four double-digit scorers as well as a rotation reaching about six or seven guys. The Gaels are paced by Aidan Mahaney, Logan Johnson, and Mitchell Saxen, all of whom were All-WCC First Team selections. Mahaney, a star freshman, averaged nearly 15 points and shot 41.1 percent from three on 5.5 attempts per game. Johnson brings a veteran, defensive-minded presence, as he was the WCC Defensive Player of the Year. The brother of former NBA player Tyler Johnson, Logan averages 14.5 points, 3.7 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game. Saxen, a junior center, protects the rim at an elite rate (1.2 blocks per game) while leading the Gaels in rebounding at nearly eight boards per game. 

All statistics used in this article are courtesy of KenPom, College Basketball Reference, and Wikipedia.